Hello and welcome to our community! Is this your first visit?
Register
Results 1 to 10 of 10
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Posts
    868

    Stats guys should be happy

    This was on 1500ESPN.com. It should make some of the advanced analytics guys happy. He was at Houston which is regularly cited as a team on the forefront of statistical analysis.

    Front-office shakeups

    One of the few pieces of news to come out of Target Center during the lockout was the mutual agreement to part ways with assistant general manager Tony Ronzone in September after 16 months.

    Ronzone was seen as a highly-touted international scout and was Kahn's right-hand man for the 2010 and 2011 drafts.

    Kahn said the front office is thinner without Ronzone but that's by design. One aspect Kahn said they "added some muscle" to in their scouting department was statistical analysis.

    Kahn said he believes they have always been on-par with the rest of the league in analyzing statistics but believes the changes will "put us a little ahead of the curve."

    The man in charge of that department will be Adelman's son, R.J. Adelman, who has worked underneath his father as an assistant coach in Houston and also assisted in the team's advanced scouting department.

    "R.J. Adelman is going to serve a role as, not only helping on the personnel side, but also will kind of manage all of our game preparations and then work directly with our coaching staff on that," Kahn said.

    There will be at least three people reporting directly to R.J. Adelman in the new front office regime, including the video staff, the advanced scout and one other person in the staff whom Kahn didn't name.

    "I think that having a unit of game preparation/player personnel preparation and a deeper analytical approach, but also not so analytic that it won't include the intuition part of the business as well and the character checks and all the other stuff that comes along with scouting, but I think that will help us," Kahn said.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    3,492
    Kevin Love must feel like everyday is going to be like going home for Christmas and Thanksgiving. High school buddy and old(meaning past, and qualified) mentor. If mom & dad move to Minny, he'd have it all here except the oceanfront volleyball. We have Two Harbors on Lake Superior in the summer. He'll re sign. Yes he will.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Arizona
    Posts
    5,279
    Kahn thought we were "on-par" with the rest of the league in the statistical analysis department? That is a scary thought. Also, going from "on-par" to "a little ahead of the curve" does not say much about Kahn's appreciation of R.J., does it?

    I think saying we were in the bottom 30 percentile in the league for statistical analysis is being optimistic. We got Darko, Telfair, Hollins, Pavlovic, Pecherov, we took Brewer's option, we passed on Curry for Flynn (you knew it was coming), turned down Deng and Thomas for Jefferson, the list goes on and on. To me, most of those deals proves beyond a doubt that most of the decisions were based on the "looks the part" philosophy more than the numbers. We did get a few "talented" guys, but a lot of them were "looks the part" guys, too. Beasley, Randolph, Ridnour, etc. Williams and Rubio were no-brainers that I don't think stats had much to do with picking.

    I don't really know much about R.J. Adelman, but I know that Houston has constantly fielded solid playoff teams while dealing with a ridiculous amount of injuries to key guys. I have a mind to say that Ronzone leaving and R.J. coming in has taken us from one of the worst in the league with statistical analysis to well above average. If R.J. had a major influence on the decisions that Houston has made over the past 4-5 years, then we are in a very, very nice place.

    Kahn easily overstated where we were before the offseason moves, and I think he understated the improvement we had.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    1,015
    Quote Originally Posted by spiker View Post
    Kevin Love must feel like everyday is going to be like going home for Christmas and Thanksgiving. High school buddy and old(meaning past, and qualified) mentor. If mom & dad move to Minny, he'd have it all here except the oceanfront volleyball. We have Two Harbors on Lake Superior in the summer. He'll re sign. Yes he will.
    Portland (Love's home town) and Minneapolis seem to have a some similar qualities and people who move from one to the other seem to make the transition ok without too much shock from the differences. Minneapolis is colder in the winter and Portland is more overcast and rainy. The problem for the Wolves recruitment of players is that the players seem to only be here during our worst months for weather, and they are off somewhere else during our glorious weather months. The Twins and Vikes don't seem to have this problem because their seasons are during our better weather months. KG seemed to get it and still loves it here.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    1,329
    Quote Originally Posted by TJ Styles View Post
    Kahn thought we were "on-par" with the rest of the league in the statistical analysis department? That is a scary thought. Also, going from "on-par" to "a little ahead of the curve" does not say much about Kahn's appreciation of R.J., does it?

    I think saying we were in the bottom 30 percentile in the league for statistical analysis is being optimistic. We got Darko, Telfair, Hollins, Pavlovic, Pecherov, we took Brewer's option, we passed on Curry for Flynn (you knew it was coming), turned down Deng and Thomas for Jefferson, the list goes on and on. To me, most of those deals proves beyond a doubt that most of the decisions were based on the "looks the part" philosophy more than the numbers. We did get a few "talented" guys, but a lot of them were "looks the part" guys, too. Beasley, Randolph, Ridnour, etc. Williams and Rubio were no-brainers that I don't think stats had much to do with picking.

    I don't really know much about R.J. Adelman, but I know that Houston has constantly fielded solid playoff teams while dealing with a ridiculous amount of injuries to key guys. I have a mind to say that Ronzone leaving and R.J. coming in has taken us from one of the worst in the league with statistical analysis to well above average. If R.J. had a major influence on the decisions that Houston has made over the past 4-5 years, then we are in a very, very nice place.

    Kahn easily overstated where we were before the offseason moves, and I think he understated the improvement we had.
    I think that was PR fluff, for wolves, ronzones, and rjs benefit. wouldnt put too much focus on his words just his actions

  6. #6
    Kestrel's Avatar
    Kestrel is offline A friend is one before whom I can think aloud. RWE

    Legend
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    9,962
    Basically it sounds like RJ Adelman has at least sampled the analytics under Daryl Morey, and his role here will include applying them to game scouting as well as (to some extent) to talent evaluation.

    But that's me phrasing it more coherently than I heard it from Kahn. The whole thing, everything about Kahn's press appearance yesterday really, just makes me impatient with Glen Taylor and his organization.

    We're sort of relying on nepotism to help Adelman the Younger have some sway; the structure Kahn described didn't seem especially to have benefitted from the lockout time off. And I don't blame that all on Kahn. Glen Taylor seems to think running a team is mostly about handing someone the keys and saying "go." Do teams at his printing business have this sort of kludgy structure to them?

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    2,848
    Quote Originally Posted by TJ Styles View Post
    Kahn thought we were "on-par" with the rest of the league in the statistical analysis department?

    We got Darko, Telfair, Hollins, Pavlovic, Pecherov, we took Brewer's option, we passed on Curry for Flynn (you knew it was coming), turned down Deng and Thomas for Jefferson, the list goes on and on. To me, most of those deals proves beyond a doubt that most of the decisions were based on the "looks the part" philosophy more than the numbers. We did get a few "talented" guys, but a lot of them were "looks the part" guys, too. Beasley, Randolph, Ridnour, etc. Williams and Rubio were no-brainers that I don't think stats had much to do with picking.
    I sometimes wonder if people understand how rebuilding an NBA franchise works.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    4,264
    Quote Originally Posted by Kestrel View Post
    . Glen Taylor seems to think running a team is mostly about handing someone the keys and saying "go." Do teams at his printing business have this sort of kludgy structure to them?
    Thats exactly how this team should be run. The owner shoudl let basket people make the basketball decisions. He should write checks.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Posts
    5,104
    Quote Originally Posted by kingsxman View Post
    Thats exactly how this team should be run. The owner shoudl let basket people make the basketball decisions. He should write checks.
    I agree, but the key thing is to get the 'right' manager in place to do the job.

    Warren Buffet hands the keys to his managers and lets them run the companies, but he usually picks the right people.

    My guess is that Taylor is fairly good at picking managers for his printing business because he understands the business. He could probably be great at those positions himself. OTOH, he would be the first to admit he knows far less about basketball and how to win basketball games.

    We could luck into a good basketball leader eventually, although this would be more about luck than skill. Hopefully, Adelman will be the 'best Coach in Wolves history' and Kahn will start getting it.
    People who ignore statistical evidence and purposefully downplay its importance show their judgment in this neglect.

    "If knowledge can create problems, it is not through ignorance that we can solve them." -- Isaac Asimov

    "Ignorance never settles a question". -- Benjamin Disraeli

    "Ignorance gives one a large range of probabilities". -- George Eliot


    http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/min?season=2014

  10. #10
    Kestrel's Avatar
    Kestrel is offline A friend is one before whom I can think aloud. RWE

    Legend
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    9,962
    Quote Originally Posted by kingsxman View Post
    Thats exactly how this team should be run. The owner shoudl let basket people make the basketball decisions. He should write checks.
    "Basket people"?

    Complicated processes, and complicated decisions, take a few different people, and some clear roles, to get through.

    Experience: I used to run a team of technical writers. It doesn't matter if you're a "word person"; trying to write, edit, and print a book by yourself, you'll screw up because you're going to miss lots of stuff along the way. What you need to carry out a publishing cycle is clear roles for a few different people. That way you have different sets of eyes, different perspectives, looking at the project as it moves along. Without those various points of view being brought to bear, you're going to wind up with expensive, time-consuming problems that could easily have been avoided. It doesn't matter if all the people involved are great writers, or conscientious editors, if they're participating in a process that's a mess.

    You're President. The military folks who spend all their time planning about a given country are telling you that a relatively small force will lead to a popular uprising against the country's dictator. You should have other people at the table to test that decision. Otherwise you're going to have the Bay of Pigs, or certain other more recent military endeavors.

    When you're evaluating a ton of college basketball players, and toss in foreign players, for the draft, you should have at least a few different perspectives aimed at the choices you're making. Kevin McHale is a "basket person." You need to have other people at the table with him -- people he respects enough to listen to, one way or another -- who can test out his potential decisions with him. Those people should be willing and able to say "Hey, from the perspective of analytics, no way is Marko Jaric worth that." When David Kahn sees "the it factor" in Jonny Flynn, there needs to be a table of people to test that opinion in other ways. Those people should have roles to help them: one person should represent "analytics," another cap considerations, and so on.

    You build your front office to help the right people make the best choices. You don't just settle for a vague sense that they're "the right guys," and start working harder. That's David Kahn's version -- "we work hard."


 

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •