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Thread: Projected wins

  1. #1

    Projected wins

    http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...2017-18-season

    Kevin Pelton's projections for wins for each team based off the ESPN RPM stat.

    Wolves projected 4th in the West (and the league) with 50.1 wins just ahead of the Thunder at 49.5 wins.

    4. Minnesota Timberwolves
    Projected wins: 50.1

    Statistical projections have been known to overrate the Timberwolves by betting on the come, including last season's seemingly conservative 37-win projection from RPM. (Minnesota won just 31 games, albeit with the point differential of a 38-win team.) With Jimmy Butler joining budding stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, this time feels different. RPM doesn't even project the Timberwolves to defend particularly well (20th in defensive rating); this projection is largely a testament to the league's second-best offensive projection.


  2. #2
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    I like the projection. But I'd be really surprised if we hit 50 wins. I don't think we're there yet.


  3. #3
    I predict 50.2
    just cuz

    what did they predict last year?


  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by kingsxman View Post
    I predict 50.2
    just cuz

    what did they predict last year?
    37.


  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by LEvine View Post
    37.
    And we had plus minus of 38 wins team
    “We want to make plays to win basketball games, not to answer any questions or respond to what people have to say about us,” James


  6. #6
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    I don't think 50 is unrealistic if everyone's healthy. The West is top 3 heavy but after that the Wolves are certainly capable of eeking out 4th.

    The NW division could end up with all five teams at or above .500.
    Inching back towards the wagon...slowly...


  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by LEvine View Post
    37.
    THx. My 50.2 is more a joke. Honestly, I think we'll be around 46 wins. I think the west has improved too much to make a jump larger than that. I hope I'm wrong.


  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by kingsxman View Post
    THx. My 50.2 is more a joke. Honestly, I think we'll be around 46 wins. I think the west has improved too much to make a jump larger than that. I hope I'm wrong.
    Ouch! Forty-six wins likely won't even get us in the playoffs.


  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Sparlimb View Post
    I like the projection. But I'd be really surprised if we hit 50 wins. I don't think we're there yet.
    I tend to agree mainly due to our lack of depth on roster currently. If we can add a couple veteran wings like Cunningham (3/4) and one of Dunleavy/J. Terry/Barbosa, etc. for example I would feel a lot better. We just need a few more guys who won't totally **** the bed when playing limited minutes of bench time, and more if there are injuries to our core.


  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by kingsxman View Post
    I predict 50.2
    just cuz

    what did they predict last year?
    I predict 50.3. How do you like that? Actually, I'm somewhere between 48-54. 4th or 5th in the West.


  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by DNyce View Post
    Ouch! Forty-six wins likely won't even get us in the playoffs.
    I've been thinking about that and I think its possible that the records may be a bit lower this year because the competition is SO much better. I can see the west teams beating each other up a bit and maybe splitting more series than they have in the past.

    But then who knows. Certainly not me.


  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Vlad View Post
    And we had plus minus of 38 wins team
    Minor correction: we had the point differential of a 38 win team.


  13. #13
    http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...eam-turnaround

    Wolves ranked first in survey of which team will have the best turnaround. Pretty obvious if you ask me.
    Comments: ESPN's Real Plus-Minus projects the Timberwolves to win 50 games after they went 31-51 a season ago. The projected jump of 19 wins is nearly twice as large as any other team and would be the second largest in franchise history.

    The team's biggest addition, Jimmy Butler, ranked No. 7 in the NBA last season in RPM while the pieces Minnesota gave up for him, Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn (along with the seventh overall pick), ranked 388th and 399th, respectively. Jeff Teague should also help ease some of the floor spacing issues, as he is a better shooter than the departed Ricky Rubio.
    It can't be overstated how beneficial it is to swap Lavine and Dunn for Butler.


  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by dschroeder01 View Post
    http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...eam-turnaround

    Wolves ranked first in survey of which team will have the best turnaround. Pretty obvious if you ask me.


    It can't be overstated how beneficial it is to swap Lavine and Dunn for Butler.
    I agree with the idea that we will be much better and you can't understate the benefit of Butler.

    I find it interesting, however, that the article makes its case for the jump based on the difference between Butler's RPM and LaVine and Dunn's RPM, but then he ignores RPM when he sells Teague as a plus. If the RPM of Butler is that big a contributor to the prediction, then why does the writer ignore that Rubio's RPM was higher than Teague's? This is the type of stuff that give "stat heads" a bad name. Use a stat to prove your case in one scenario, then ignore that same stat when it gives a contradictory picture in another scenario. If there is "more to it" for Teague's value over Rubio than just RPM, then how come there isn't "more to it" for Butler vs. LaVine and Dunn?


  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by TJ Styles View Post
    I agree with the idea that we will be much better and you can't understate the benefit of Butler.

    I find it interesting, however, that the article makes its case for the jump based on the difference between Butler's RPM and LaVine and Dunn's RPM, but then he ignores RPM when he sells Teague as a plus. If the RPM of Butler is that big a contributor to the prediction, then why does the writer ignore that Rubio's RPM was higher than Teague's? This is the type of stuff that give "stat heads" a bad name. Use a stat to prove your case in one scenario, then ignore that same stat when it gives a contradictory picture in another scenario. If there is "more to it" for Teague's value over Rubio than just RPM, then how come there isn't "more to it" for Butler vs. LaVine and Dunn?
    Based on last year's numbers Rubio accounted for 8.72 wins, Teague 8.08. Obviously this doesn't account for all variables and the projections will change for those 2 players this year, but just based off last year's RPM, there's not too much difference there with it being less than a win. As a contrast, Butler is worth something over 17 wins more than Lavine and Dunn combined.

    EDIT: I reread your post and see now that I missed your point. You weren't comparing their actual wins. I see now. I agree that it's a bit misleading to talk of Teague as a positive for his potential floor spacing and ignore the slight downgrade in wins.
    Last edited by dschroeder01; 08-12-2017 at 08:33 PM.


  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by dschroeder01 View Post
    Based on last year's numbers Rubio accounted for 8.72 wins, Teague 8.08. Obviously this doesn't account for all variables and the projections will change for those 2 players this year, but just based off last year's RPM, there's not too much difference there with it being less than a win. As a contrast, Butler is worth something over 17 wins more than Lavine and Dunn combined.
    Even though the wins stat is subjective when it relates to the player and the roster he's on, it's a pretty sigificant indicator of effectiveness overall.



 

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