Official 2010 FA Thread

[jersey wolf]

if NOLA were to trade paul, which i cant fathom they would do, it would take rubio, al or love, and something else (pick(s) with al involved or a good role player if love is involved). and i'd do that in a heartbeat. paul is absolutely phenomenal and would immediately add 5-10 wins to this team.

that dream over ...

i've already covered the thought process here. assuming no wade, lebron, bosh (unnecessary), and JJ ...

gay and ronnie brewer
gay, redick, and darko
chandler and (and two of the three others above after gay)

and if we cant get a 8-10 million contract for gay and chandler, i probably punt on the offseason if we cant get one of the three others above on the 'cheap', focus on the draft picks as necessary and get ready to make a run at durant the following summer. i.e. max player, max contract, clear the cupboard.

[BIG BAD WOLF]

If NO decided to get rid of Paul it would be for the price savings. They would be looking for cheaper talent that can get it done. They would also look to ship bad contracts out of town. Production wise, Rubio could come close to replacing Paul. Getting Al back would go against their cost saving approach. From that perspective, the rights to Pekovic might seem more attractive to them. Or Love. And then all the picks MIN has will have to change hands.

But, like Jersey said, time to wake up.

I would really like to see them making a move for Biendris or Noah. Big, talented defensive presence who will not get in the way at the offensive end.

If Hinrich was one or two years younger he would be an intriguing choice to play SG next to MIN PG's. Between him and Brewer, the wing defense would be NASTY. Not to mention that to take that kind of contract off of CHI hands, a first round pick would have to come along.

However, all the cap space hoopla was about finding and signing a first option, an alpha dog, a star. If all the pain of watching this team accumulate assets over the last three years boils down to Outlaw, that would be underwhelming.

[Kestrel]

Like I said, this depresses me.

Speculating about how much it would cost to trade for Paul is pointless and only makes me feel down on our kids. I like our young players. Going out of our way to daydream about how they're not in the same tier as Kobe Bryant does nothing for me.

I absolutely love watching Chris Paul, and think he works great in New Orleans. He's that team's face, and I hope it dang well stays that way. The first big contract was painfully stupid and our front office made serious blunders, but KG should have retired a Timberwolf and we all know it.

Free agents is one thing, players who don't quite fit in their current situations is one thing. KG got to be one of the latter, over time, painfully. I dunno. This brings me down.

The idea is to develop your own Chris Pauls. In that sense I would love the Wolves to get those emerging players, rather than poaching an alpha dog ready made. It makes more financial sense, too.

[BIG BAD WOLF]

Originally Posted by Kestrel

The idea is to develop your own Chris Pauls. In that sense I would love the Wolves to get those emerging players, rather than poaching an alpha dog ready made. It makes more financial sense, too.

Do you think we have this alpha puppy in today's roster?
Growing from within is good but so is poaching a star from somewhere and running with him. PHO never bothered make a run at Kobe the year they got Nash. And that got them within a body check from the finals.

ATL was unfazed by all the media calling the contract they gave JJ stupid money.

[dschroeder01]

Originally Posted by jersey wolf

if NOLA were to trade paul, which i cant fathom they would do, it would take rubio, al or love, and something else (pick(s) with al involved or a good role player if love is involved). and i'd do that in a heartbeat. paul is absolutely phenomenal and would immediately add 5-10 wins to this team.

that dream over ...

i've already covered the thought process here. assuming no wade, lebron, bosh (unnecessary), and JJ ...

gay and ronnie brewer
gay, redick, and darko
chandler and (and two of the three others above after gay)

and if we cant get a 8-10 million contract for gay and chandler, i probably punt on the offseason if we cant get one of the three others above on the 'cheap', focus on the draft picks as necessary and get ready to make a run at durant the following summer. i.e. max player, max contract, clear the cupboard.

Durant will be an RFA right? No way that OKC doesn't match any contract.

[LA_33]

Originally Posted by jersey wolf

i've already covered the thought process here. assuming no wade, lebron, bosh (unnecessary), and JJ ...

gay and ronnie brewer
gay, redick, and darko
chandler and (and two of the three others above after gay)

and if we cant get a 8-10 million contract for gay and chandler, i probably punt on the offseason if we cant get one of the three others above on the 'cheap', focus on the draft picks as necessary and get ready to make a run at durant the following summer. i.e. max player, max contract, clear the cupboard.

I hate to do this in yet another thread, jersey, but it's highly unlikely that any of those combos will be possible if the Wolves pick up Brewer's option.

With Brewer on the books, the team will have a little over $41 committed after waving Gomes, including draft-pick cap holds (Rubio, plus at least two 2010 1sts). So unless the cap comes in WAY over the current $50m-$53.5m projection (or if they don't have one of the two high 1sts, I guess, either their own, or CHA's) they'll have between $9m and $13m to spend.

If Gay costs $8-10m to start, which I agree that he will (Chandler has a player option for over $13m, which I can't imagine him turning down, so I don't expect him to be a FA option) then they're left with less than the MLE in the very-best-case scenario, and possibly as little as $1m.

I think it will take at least the MLE to sign Ronnie Brewer away from Utah (he's restricted, remember, and with CJ Miles constantly hurt, he's a frequent starter for them) and I can't even imagine getting both Darko and Reddick for under $5m total (I'm not sure I'd want to spend the money on those two anyway, but it will cost more than $5m to do so, IMO).

So I think the very best you could hope for would be Gay, and one or the other of Darko/Reddick. If that's the tentative plan (one $8-12m wing, plus a second cheaper player) I'd much rather try to get Azubuike for $3m or so as the second guy (even though that would most likely make Brewer's $3.7m salary look complete stupid) or perhaps ideally, sign Pekovic for something starting in the $3-4m range as the 4th big (I have no idea if he's going to be enough of a defender to complement the Al/Love/Hollins holdovers (or if Love will be that defender?) but I trust the Wolves' international scouts to know that as well as anyone).

As I've said over and over, this math is why I don't want to give Brewer that option, before he's actually proven he's worth it, because it severely limits the possible targets any additional signing(s) after adding the $8-12m wing we all seem to agree should be the first priority.

[Kestrel]

Originally Posted by BIG BAD WOLF

Do you think we have this alpha puppy in today's roster?
Growing from within is good but so is poaching a star from somewhere and running with him. PHO never bothered make a run at Kobe the year they got Nash. And that got them within a body check from the finals.

ATL was unfazed by all the media calling the contract they gave JJ stupid money.

It wasn't the contract so much as it was the draft picks they gave Phoenix, was how I saw that at the time.

JJ would maybe be one model for next year, is what I'm saying: A burgeoning star who just emerged on someone else's roster, but who isn't quite to "alpha" status yet. (Or, hello, Al Jefferson for that matter.) I'm just not that incredibly thrilled with the idea of adding Amar'e Stoudamire or whoever as a ready-built #1 star, that's all.

In the event I'd adjust, of course. Partly I think New Orleans fans don't deserve what happened to us over those last few KG years.

[LA_33]

Originally Posted by Wile E Coyote

I wonder if POR would trade Outlaw for Gomes straight up?

Team   MPG  FG%   3P%   FT%   OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO   PF   PPG  PER  HT   WT
Gomes  31.9 0.431 0.372 0.807 1.3 3.5 4.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 1.56 2.20 13.3 12.5 6'7" 245
Outlaw 27.7 0.453 0.377 0.723 0.9 3.2 4.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.16 2.10 12.8 15.1 6'9" 207

Aside from the fact that Portland does not seem to want to part with anyone on their roster, this trade makes sense for both teams to me.

Their contracts are nearly identical in size. Outlaw is not a starter in POR and might see less minutes due to the improvement of Batum and return to health of Webster. Portland probably needs a backup PF or a combo forward more than a pure SF. Gomes seems like a good fit, and he doesn't need the ball much.

The Wolves need a pure SF who can D up on the perimeter better than Gomes. Outlaw is more athletic and would work well with the uptempo attack. He seems like an obvious starter here. If the Wolves like him better than Gomes anyway, they get him here and acclimated now and eliminate the guarenteed part of Gomes contract.

I think there's roughly zero chance that Portland would trade Outlaw for Gomes. The Blazers do seem to want a more natural PF playing Outlaw's current backup-PF role (as you implied, hep lays most of his minutes as the backup 4, stretching the floor around Oden in the middle). But the guys they're looking at (Millsap, David Lee) are in a whole different

Gomes isn't the type of natural PF that those guys are (nor is he anywhere NEAR as good). In fact, he's almost exactly a less-athletic Outlaw; both guys are 3/4 combos, but Outlaw is both better offensively than Gomes, and a FAR better defender at BOTH forward spots. In short, both of them should really be playing most of minutes at SF, so Gomes doesn't bring Portland any real advantage (Ryan's among the worst defensive PFs in the league; Craig Smith is one of the few he's clearly better than...)

If one of the results of the 2010 offseason for the Wolves is to replace Gomes on a $4m-annual contract with Outlaw for more like $6m-annual, that's a significant upgrade for them (unfortuntely, as I just outlined above, that will be hard to do unless they either strike out on a better, $8-12m wing (t which point I agree that they should or decline C.Brewer's option so they actually have room for a second above-MLE addition).

[jersey wolf]

Originally Posted by LA_33

I hate to do this in yet another thread, jersey, but it's highly unlikely that any of those combos will be possible if the Wolves pick up Brewer's option.

.

ok. we get it...

[LA_33]

Originally Posted by jersey wolf

ok. we get it...

I'm sorry, I really will stop.

But also keep suggesting a free agency plan that is only realistic if they decline Brewer's option. You can't have it both ways.
You seem to be hoping for one FA/trade-target in the $10m range, and then another one in the $5m range. If they retain Brewer for $3.7m, he IS that second guy.

If the cap comes in significantly higher than everyone currently expects it to, great, the Wolves (and everyone else with cap room) can attempt to sign an additional player, or even two. But we shouldn't be planning on that, and I hope (and assume, given Kahn's cap-management credentials) that the Wolves aren't, either. If they pick up Brewer's option, I think we should be assuming that the FA plan is that $8-12m guy, and nothing else.

[LEvine]

I'd be really intrigued by a combo of Azubuike and Outlaw, combined with drafting the best swing available at our spot (Evan Turner?). Something like this:

Flynn/Sessions/Hart (or other 3rd PG)
Azubuike/Turner/Ellington (or Sessions if Ellington doesn't pan out)
Outlaw/Turner
Love/Outlaw/Draft pick or FA
Jefferson/Hollins/Draft pick or FA

Azubuike, Outlaw and Turner could battle it out for the 2 starting spots with the "loser" being our 6th man.

[jersey wolf]

Originally Posted by LA_33

I'm sorry, I really will stop.

But also keep suggesting a free agency plan that is only realistic if they decline Brewer's option. You can't have it both ways.
You seem to be hoping for one FA/trade-target in the $10m range, and then another one in the $5m range. If they retain Brewer for $3.7m, he IS that second guy.

If the cap comes in significantly higher than everyone currently expects it to, great, the Wolves (and everyone else with cap room) can attempt to sign an additional player, or even two. But we shouldn't be planning on that, and I hope (and assume, given Kahn's cap-management credentials) that the Wolves aren't, either. If they pick up Brewer's option, I think we should be assuming that the FA plan is that $8-12m guy, and nothing else.

i dont want to give astericks for every single post and potential FA move that is commented on. and not every single thing needs to be figured out by 10/31. i'm not the one picking up the option. if kahn wants to pick it up, so be it. and i'm happy for corey.

for the record, i'm going to try with all my might to avoid this board the day that this happens / doesn't happen. we should just cut and paste the entire three threads this is in when the resolution is determined.

picking up brewer's option is not part of my plan for this topic and is a moot point. i know you say it can't happen with brewer's option, but it isn't 100% guaranteed. i'm making mutually exclusive comments. we could find a team/GM to take on salary and (blank) to clear cap space as well.

i wonder about r. brewer though and how much he will cost. and what would knocking on his door at 12:01 the day FA begins say to him. (with other people elsewhere obviously)

[LA_33]

Originally Posted by jersey wolf

i dont want to give astericks for every single post and potential FA move that is commented on. and not every single thing needs to be figured out by 10/31. i'm not the one picking up the option. if kahn wants to pick it up, so be it. and i'm happy for corey.

for the record, i'm going to try with all my might to avoid this board the day that this happens / doesn't happen. we should just cut and paste the entire three threads this is in when the resolution is determined.

picking up brewer's option is not part of my plan for this topic and is a moot point. i know you say it can't happen with brewer's option, but it isn't 100% guaranteed. i'm making mutually exclusive comments. we could find a team/GM to take on salary and (blank) to clear cap space as well.

i wonder about r. brewer though and how much he will cost. and what would knocking on his door at 12:01 the day FA begins say to him. (with other people elsewhere obviously)

Fair enough. Again, I apologize for beating the option-discussion into the ground.

To move on, I also like R.Brewer (although wish his name was different, to avoid confusion with that other topic I've recently been obsessed with).

The Jazz also seem to like, him, though, and with Millsap signed to a pretty reasonable deal to be their starting PF as soon as they get rid of Boozer (next summer at the latest, and probably yet during this season, IMO) their financial situation isn't terrible, so I'd imagine that they'll match on R.Brewer, unless the offer is pretty outrageous (and I don't like him enough to pay him "outrageous"). Definitely one of the guys I'll be watching closely, though.

[tmirvin]

Originally Posted by LA_33

I'm sorry, I really will stop.

But also keep suggesting a free agency plan that is only realistic if they decline Brewer's option. You can't have it both ways.
You seem to be hoping for one FA/trade-target in the $10m range, and then another one in the $5m range. If they retain Brewer for $3.7m, he IS that second guy.

If the cap comes in significantly higher than everyone currently expects it to, great, the Wolves (and everyone else with cap room) can attempt to sign an additional player, or even two. But we shouldn't be planning on that, and I hope (and assume, given Kahn's cap-management credentials) that the Wolves aren't, either. If they pick up Brewer's option, I think we should be assuming that the FA plan is that $8-12m guy, and nothing else.

Not that I want to continue this conversation, I don't, but you seem attached to the idea that if Brewer's contract is picked up, there is NO WAY the Wolves can get a $10m guy & a $5m guy. Why can't the Wolves make other independent moves to free up that additional cap space? Why is it that they have to decline Corey's option? I think Kahn has shown that he can make moves with the sole purpose of opening up cap space. If you believe that Corey - as a player - is not worth the contract, that's fine. Please just don't make your only reason to not pick up his option because it ties up our flexibility to sign 2 guys this summer. Or am I missing something?

If Kahn thinks Corey is a player worth that salary and he still wants to sign 2 guys next summer, I think he can find a way to make that happen. In fact, the pace he's been going, he could probably do it in a week.

[tmirvin]

Originally Posted by LA_33

Fair enough. Again, I apologize for beating the option-discussion into the ground.

To move on, I also like R.Brewer (although wish his name was different, to avoid confusion with that other topic I've recently been obsessed with).

The Jazz also seem to like, him, though, and with Millsap signed to a pretty reasonable deal to be their starting PF as soon as they get rid of Boozer (next summer at the latest, and probably yet during this season, IMO) their financial situation isn't terrible, so I'd imagine that they'll match on R.Brewer, unless the offer is pretty outrageous (and I don't like him enough to pay him "outrageous"). Definitely one of the guys I'll be watching closely, though.

Agreed. I like Ronnie Brewer a lot and brought his name up last week as a potential target. With Millsap, DWill, Okur (2yr $21m extension sign a few months ago), & AK (2yrs left at something like $16-18m each), they do have some money invested. I don't think it would be impossible to get him, but like you said it may take someone to overbid to get him and I'm with you - he's not good enough to overbid for unless he shows some improvement on the offensive end.

[Wile E Coyote]

Originally Posted by LEvine

I'd be really intrigued by a combo of Azubuike and Outlaw, combined with drafting the best swing available at our spot (Evan Turner?). Something like this:

Flynn/Sessions/Hart (or other 3rd PG)
Azubuike/Turner/Ellington (or Sessions if Ellington doesn't pan out)
Outlaw/Turner
Love/Outlaw/Draft pick or FA
Jefferson/Hollins/Draft pick or FA

Azubuike, Outlaw and Turner could battle it out for the 2 starting spots with the "loser" being our 6th man.

If the Wolves cannot bring in a top tier talent, that sounds like a good plan to me. How is the defense of those two? Ideally, the Wolves look to bring in guys that can at least defend, run the floor, and hit the 3.

For that reason I'd be a little leery of Ronnie Brewer. It would appear that he is just not going to become a three point threat, and according to Hollinger his D is good but not great. I wonder how many of those open dunks/layups he gets are a product of Jerry's system and a great PG?

[LEvine]

Originally Posted by Wile E Coyote

If the Wolves cannot bring in a top tier talent, that sounds like a good plan to me. How is the defense of those two? Ideally, the Wolves look to bring in guys that can at least defend, run the floor, and hit the 3.

For that reason I'd be a little leery of Ronnie Brewer. It would appear that he is just not going to become a three point threat, and according to Hollinger his D is good but not great. I wonder how many of those open dunks/layups he gets are a product of Jerry's system and a great PG?

Azubuike projected as an above-average defender coming into the league, but its hard to know with him playing for Nellie. He's definitely an above average athlete, and he played for Tubby, so we know defense was stressed at least in college.

Outlaw is a guy who has every tool to be a dominant defender at the SF, but really needs a strong coach to bring out the best in him. Here is a good overview I found:

Defense: A solid defender who needs to recognize that he has all of the physical tools to be an elite defender. Has the length and lateral quickness to be a menace on the perimeter, but has only been to take advantage of that in small doses. Is largely inconsistent with the things he shows on the defensive end. Follows up one great play up with a terrible one, blocking shots and getting steals, but also falling for fakes and taking some possessions off. Isn’t always very aggressive when defending the perimeter. Doesn’t get low in his stance will let slower players beat him off the dribble periodically. Won’t give up a lot of penetration when he’s giving a good effort. Has the length to contest shots and the quickness to close out shooters effectively. Can be a force when he’s fully tuned in thanks to his awesome physical tools. Will get an occasional steal or block. Tends to largely let the game come to him, not always following the scouting report or displaying good fundamentals. Rebounds at a solid rate by virtue of his athleticism. Has all kinds of potential as a defender. Needs to recognize what an added measure of defensive intensity and awareness could do for his value as a role player.

[dschroeder01]

Originally Posted by tmirvin

Not that I want to continue this conversation, I don't, but you seem attached to the idea that if Brewer's contract is picked up, there is NO WAY the Wolves can get a $10m guy & a $5m guy. Why can't the Wolves make other independent moves to free up that additional cap space? Why is it that they have to decline Corey's option? I think Kahn has shown that he can make moves with the sole purpose of opening up cap space. If you believe that Corey - as a player - is not worth the contract, that's fine. Please just don't make your only reason to not pick up his option because it ties up our flexibility to sign 2 guys this summer. Or am I missing something?

If Kahn thinks Corey is a player worth that salary and he still wants to sign 2 guys next summer, I think he can find a way to make that happen. In fact, the pace he's been going, he could probably do it in a week.

Gomes is the only guy and the decision on him is pretty simple. Decline the option or pick it up next June.

Unless you want Kahn to deal guys from the core (Al, Love, Flynn, Sessions), cheap potential core (Ellington), or affordable role player + potential (Hollins), there's not much fat to trim on the roster. I guess we could deal Rubio's rights or our draft picks.

[Wile E Coyote]

Originally Posted by LEvine

Outlaw is a guy who has every tool to be a dominant defender at the SF, but really needs a strong coach to bring out the best in him. Here is a good overview I found:

Thanks for the scouting info. That is a little troubling to me honestly. Nate is about as strong a coach as they come, and Portland's ridiculous depth makes it easy to bench poor defenders.

If Outlaw has been a poor defender in that environment, it seems unlikely he'd improve here. Although, as others have mentioned, maybe that makes him the cost-effective version of Rudy Gay

[Wile E Coyote]

Could someone with admin powers please sticky this thread?